Unverified50% confidenceDecision RuleExact time
The position of the original text is: probability estimates can serve as a thinking tool, but cannot be used directly as a basis for decision-making.
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10/12/2026
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UnverifiedFor a unique and unprecedented historical event, whether it is even appropriate to talk about 'probability' is itself a philosophical question, and some scholars believe such situations are better discussed using possibility narratives or scenario analysis.71% similarUnverifiedBayesian decision theory does not directly predict labels; instead, given posterior probabilities, it computes the expected loss for each possible action and then selects the action with the minimum loss.70% similarUnverifiedThe three researchers reached a consensus: thinking itself cannot generate new bits out of thin air, but can only update posterior probabilities based on information already obtained.69% similarUnverified贝叶斯最优分类器理论上完美但实践中通常无法直接计算，因真实条件概率分布往往未知67% similarUnverifiedThe model's tool-triggering decision is essentially a probabilistic threshold problem: when confidence exceeds the threshold the model tends to answer directly, and only triggers retrieval when confidence falls below it.67% similar
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