Unverified50% confidenceDecision RuleExact time
The pragmatic path for policymakers is: for problems dominated by parameter uncertainty, give range estimates and annotate assumptions; for problems dominated by model uncertainty, prioritize scenario narratives and robustness analysis rather than single-point probabilities.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
10/12/2026
First Seen
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
VerifiedSURE uncertainty modeling enables the model to express confidence and abstain when evidence is insufficient, distinguishing between epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty.74% similarUnverifiedCompared with traditional causal graphs or decision trees, the Influence Model places greater emphasis on multi-factor interactions under uncertainty and explicitly annotates each piece of knowledge with its confidence level and applicable preconditions.73% similarUnverifiedAdding schema validation at the tool-calling stage constrains the uncertainty of model outputs to a controllable range.71% similarUnverifiedResearch directions for improving model calibration include introducing uncertainty tokens through supervised fine-tuning, performing post-calibration on probability distributions using temperature sampling, and training models to proactively output the ability to refuse to answer.70% similarUnverifiedThe shift in approaches to uncertainty from relying on historical data to building generative reasoning and imaginative capabilities represents the evolutionary direction of AI risk prediction.70% similar
Cite This Claim
Stable URI
https://kongchang.com/claim/1007629API
curl https://kongchang.com/api/v1/knowledge/claims/1007629MCP
get_claim(id=1007629)