Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
The report's prediction section lists five records, but each retains only a confidence value (0.85%, 0.85%, 0.9%, 0.9%, 0.9%), with all prediction text missing.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Short-term (~14 days)
Relevance
10/12/2026
First Seen
Valid until: 10/26/2026
Sources
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Related Claims
UnverifiedThe framework's prediction intervals achieve empirical coverage rates of 0.533, 0.831, and 0.958 at nominal confidence levels of 50%, 80%, and 95%, respectively.69% similarUnverifiedExcluding the three flagship models, all models' story quality scores were clustered between 0.62 and 0.73, while director's note scores spanned a wide range from 0.40 to 0.94.65% similarUnverifiedRanked by question difficulty, persistence rate was 91.4% on the 60 questions that all models answered correctly, but only 73.5% on the 52 questions that at least one model got wrong, indicating that sycophancy tracks uncertainty.65% similarUnverifiedThe five systems achieved standard answer accuracy ranging from 0.969 to 0.996.65% similarUnverifiedOf the 12 hosted models measured, 7 maintained a false-confidence rate of 0.00 or 0.10 across every format.64% similar
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