Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
In the multiple testing problem, if each independent test produces a false positive with a 5% probability at the 5% significance level, then after 20 independent attempts the probability of at least one false positive is about 64%.
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50%
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10/14/2026
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Unverified多重比较问题指同时测试多个模型变体时，即使每个单独检验显著性水平设为0.05，整体假阳性率也会急剧膨胀78% similarUnverifiedDue to sampling variance, each test message should be run twice; a rule that holds with only 50% probability is effectively no rule at all.76% similarUnverified在5%显著性水平下测试100个随机因子，期望会有5个看起来显著（多重假设检验问题）76% similarUnverifiedAccording to the properties of the binomial distribution, detecting a 5% failure rate with 95% confidence requires at least approximately 60 independent runs.76% similarUnverifiedUnder the condition of n=100 with an even split of positive and negative samples, the 95% confidence interval for 55% accuracy is roughly 45%–65%, which covers the 50% baseline, so the 5 percentage point gap may be random fluctuation.74% similar
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