Unverified50% confidenceConceptExact time
TaskProof's probability-weighted expected net income formula is "net prize × win probability", with a payoff of 0 when losing, and this number applies only to the long-run average of many repeated decisions, not to the actual amount received in a single instance.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
10/16/2026
First Seen
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
Unverified期望价值的计算方式为各种可能结果的收益乘以其发生概率之和73% similarUnverifiedIn the synthetic experiment, "always output RISK_LEVEL: 1" achieves an ordinary accuracy as high as 0.922, but an average reward of −0.000, showing that class-balanced rewards can prevent laziness.70% similarUnverifiedThe confidence number a model reports about itself and a calibrated probability are not the same kind of object: the self-reported number comes from token sampling in the same forward pass as the answer, with no lookup of outcomes, whereas a calibrated probability must come from a paired record (join) of predictions and outcomes.69% similarUnverifiedThe benchmark produces two numbers for each model that are never merged: a task score and a false-confidence rate (the proportion of cases that should have been escalated but were answered anyway).69% similarUnverifiedTask completion rate refers to the proportion of goals completed independently without human intervention, and the resource completion ratio equals value divided by cost.69% similar
Cite This Claim
Stable URI
https://kongchang.com/claim/1047881API
curl https://kongchang.com/api/v1/knowledge/claims/1047881MCP
get_claim(id=1047881)