Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
On the initial synthetic farm trajectories, the model was overconfident: when it claimed "95% confident the battery level is above 30%", the actual hit rate was only 78%.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Medium-term (~90 days)
Relevance
10/18/2026
First Seen
Valid until: 1/16/2027
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
UnverifiedWhen the model claims at least 90% confidence, its actual accuracy is only 56%, making it an extremely poorly calibrated model; therefore ReachNT hides the confidence percentage from tenants, and 42% of dangerous reports are routed to human handling before any decision is made.63% similarUnverifiedSubstituting the strategy's data (55% × 2.4R − 45% × 1R) yields an expected value of +0.87R, meaning a long-term average net gain of 0.87 units for every 1 unit of risk taken.58% similarUnverifiedThe model has an 89% probability of finding the correct evidence, but only a 20% probability of turning it into a verifiable product assertion; 71% of features ultimately had no verified capability description, and the workflow recovery rate was only 18%.58% similarUnverified'99% 准确率'的模型在生产环境中仍可能频繁出错，因为剩余的 1% 往往对应现实中最关键的长尾细节场景57% similarUnverifiedThe confidence reported by the model is severely disconnected from actual accuracy: the 95% confidence tier had an actual accuracy of 0%, while the 90% and 70% tiers both had an actual accuracy of 100%.57% similar
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