Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
Researchers have proposed having models explicitly output probabilities, or estimating reliability by sampling multiple times and measuring answer consistency (self-consistency).
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10/22/2026
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Unverified对同一测试用例执行多次调用统计成功比例得到通过率，比二元的通过/失败判断更能反映模型真实表现77% similarUnverifiedPrecision refers to the proportion of samples the model identifies as positive that are truly positive; recall refers to the proportion of all true positives that the model successfully identifies; the two typically have an inverse relationship.77% similarUnverifiedThe effectiveness of threshold functions is highly dependent on the calibration quality of the underlying model's output probabilities.75% similarUnverifiedBenchmark scores measure the average of a model's success consistency and failure frequency, not its peak capability.73% similarUnverifiedIn prediction markets, confidence usually denotes the subjective probability a model assigns to a binary or multinomial outcome and can be calibrated after the fact using metrics such as the Brier score; in LLM-driven systems it is often obtained from model self-assessment or by averaging the logits of multiple samples, with reliability far lower than that of statistical models.73% similar
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