Unverified50% confidencePredictionExact time
Under the prediction economy, the metric system by which advertisers measure campaigns shifts from impressions and clicks to the estimation accuracy and actual hit rate of conversion probabilities.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Medium-term (~90 days)
Relevance
10/26/2026
First Seen
Valid until: 1/24/2027
Sources
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Unverified期望价值的计算方式为各种可能结果的收益乘以其发生概率之和74% similarUnverifiedIn prediction markets, confidence usually denotes the subjective probability a model assigns to a binary or multinomial outcome and can be calibrated after the fact using metrics such as the Brier score; in LLM-driven systems it is often obtained from model self-assessment or by averaging the logits of multiple samples, with reliability far lower than that of statistical models.65% similarUnverifiedThe method relies on enumerating candidate L1s, and the computational cost of probability scoring grows linearly with the number of candidates.64% similarUnverifiedThe expected value formula is: Expected Value = (Win Rate × Average Profit) − (Loss Rate × Average Loss).64% similarVerifiedA "well-calibrated" probability judgment means that when a model says something has a 70% chance of occurring, the actual occurrence rate of that event across many similar predictions is close to 70%.64% similar
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