Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
菲利普·泰特洛克于1984年启动了长达20年的「专家政治判断」项目，追踪284位专家的近28,000条预测
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
7/7/2026
First Seen
Sources
AI超级预测者：机器能否超越人类专家的预测能力？
hackernewshackernews7/6/2026
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