Unverified60% confidenceFactExact time
Research shows that when humans assign 90% confidence, their actual accuracy rate is often only around 70%, indicating a systematic overconfidence
2
Sources
60%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
7/7/2026
First Seen
Sources
AI超级预测者：机器能否超越人类专家的预测能力？
hackernewshackernews7/6/2026
Related Claims
UnverifiedThe confidence reported by the model is severely disconnected from actual accuracy: the 95% confidence tier had an actual accuracy of 0%, while the 90% and 70% tiers both had an actual accuracy of 100%.80% similarUnverifiedPrecision bias refers to the tendency for people to assign higher credibility to statements containing precise numbers; experiments show that subjects rated the credibility of "41.3%" significantly higher than "approximately 40%".79% similarUnverifiedCalibration does not equal high accuracy; a system that reports 95% confidence on everything may still be overconfident or blindly optimistic even if its accuracy reaches 95%.76% similarUnverifiedGeneral-purpose large models commonly suffer from overconfidence issues in confidence calibration, tending to output confidence levels close to 100%.75% similarVerifiedCalibrated confidence means that when the system gives a score of 0.9, the probability of being correct should be close to 90%.74% similar
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