Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
IARPA于2011年启动的「聚合条件估计」（ACE）项目直接催生了泰特洛克的良好判断计划
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
7/7/2026
First Seen
Sources
AI超级预测者：机器能否超越人类专家的预测能力？
hackernewshackernews7/6/2026
Related Claims
Unverified2011年泰特洛克在IARPA资助下发起「良好判断计划」，识别出持续表现优异的超级预测者群体79% similarUnverified良好判断计划在IARPA主导的「聚合条件估计」（ACE）竞赛中以约30%的持续优势领先CIA等专业情报分析机构72% similarVerifiedARC-AGI is a benchmark designed by AI safety researcher François Chollet specifically to measure fluid intelligence.60% similarUnverifiedBenchmarks that currently receive more attention for evaluating AGI reasoning capabilities include ARC (Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus) and BIG-Bench Hard.60% similarUnverified人工评估常用标注者间一致性（IAA）指标如Cohen's Kappa和Krippendorff's Alpha来确保评估质量可靠性，一般Kappa大于0.7为可接受水平59% similar
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