Unverified70% confidenceFactTime unknown
The probability that a candidate drug entering Phase I clinical trials ultimately receives approval is less than 10%, and in oncology it is even lower, at approximately 5%.
2
Sources
70%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
6/1/2026
First Seen
Sources
Isomorphic Labs融资21亿美元：AlphaFold团队如何用AI重塑药物发现
twitterdemishassabis
Related Claims
UnverifiedThe threshold for self-reported endorsement is far lower than clinical diagnostic criteria, which is why the proportion of dark traits at the self-report level (approximately 10%) is significantly higher than the clinical diagnosis rate of 1% to 5%.66% similarUnverifiedAn increase in relative risk may be negligible in absolute terms if the baseline incidence rate is already very low.61% similarUnverified肿瘤局部pH值下降至约6.5-6.8，正常组织约7.461% similarUnverifiedIn the placebo test, 90% of the synthetic control method estimates narrowed to between -7% and +9%, with RMSE dropping to 4.9 percentage points, more than one-third lower than DiD.61% similarUnverifiedWhen a predictive model performs excellently but clinicians cannot take practical action based on it, its impact on outcomes may be minimal.60% similar
Cite This Claim
Stable URI
https://kongchang.com/claim/26582API
curl https://kongchang.com/api/v1/knowledge/claims/26582MCP
get_claim(id=26582)