Unverified50% confidenceTradeoffExact time
对于重现期超过人类观测历史的极端事件，传统的回测验证方法完全失效
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
7/14/2026
First Seen
Sources
引导式生成模型：精准估算极端事件概率的新方法
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