Expired50% confidencePredictionExact time
The roadmap proposed by Arora is that token costs need to first drop 20% within the next 12 months, then be compressed year by year, ultimately achieving a cumulative reduction of approximately 90%.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Medium-term (~90 days)
Relevance
7/18/2026
First Seen
Valid until: 10/16/2026(expired)
Sources
Related Claims
UnverifiedInference costs have dropped sharply, with the token cost of some models falling by more than 90%.71% similarVerifiedOver the past two years, the inference cost of mainstream models has dropped by more than 90%.68% similarUnverifiedInference costs at leading AI service providers have declined by more than 90% between 2023 and 2025.67% similarUnverifiedSequencing costs decrease by approximately 50% every 18 months, a rate of decline surpassing Moore's Law in the semiconductor industry.67% similarUnverifiedThe compute cost per unit of inference is declining at a rate of 40% to 60% per year.66% similar
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