Verified75% confidenceFactExact time
The upper time limit for deterministic weather forecasting is generally considered to be approximately two weeks
3
Sources
75%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
8/9/2026
First Seen
Sources
谷歌WeatherNext登Nature：AI气象模型预测台风路径领先24小时
Related Claims
UnverifiedThe meteorological community typically divides forecasts by timescale into three categories: medium-range weather forecasting (about 0-15 days), subseasonal forecasting (about 15 days to 60 days), and seasonal climate prediction (months to more than a year).75% similarUnverifiedThe 2-6 week subseasonal timescale is recognized by the meteorological community as the "forecast desert" and is a recognized difficulty in international meteorological research.74% similarUnverifiedThe atmosphere, as a chaotic system, amplifies small errors in initial conditions exponentially, which determines that deterministic weather forecasting has a theoretical upper limit of approximately two weeks.71% similarUnverifiedTraditional numerical models often can only give 'skill-less' forecasts close to the climatological mean state in the 2-6 week subseasonal time window.69% similar
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