Unverified50% confidenceOpinionExact time
The author believes that most of the progress in the time-series anomaly detection field over the past decade appears to be illusory.
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Long-term
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8/31/2026
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UnverifiedThe New York Times recently published a report revealing the trend of hallucination problems increasing rather than decreasing as reasoning models evolve iteratively.69% similarUnverified大模型时代许多重要发现来自实验先行，有些现象如涌现能力、上下文学习至今没有完美的理论解释67% similarVerifiedA 2023 Stanford University study challenged the phenomenon of "emergence," arguing that it is largely an artifact of the choice of evaluation metrics rather than a genuine sudden shift in model capability.63% similarVerifiedRylan Schaeffer's team at Stanford University published a rebuttal study in 2023 arguing that "emergence" may be a visual illusion caused by the discontinuous selection of evaluation metrics, rather than a true nonlinear leap in model capability62% similarUnverified作者在同一留出集窗口上做了13次实验后，认为再声称该窗口未被触碰不够诚实，因为它已间接引导模型演化路径60% similar
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