Unverified50% confidenceOpinionExact time
Nate is the author of If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies and believes the risk of AI-caused extinction is far higher than 10%.
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Long-term
Relevance
9/19/2026
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Related Claims
UnverifiedA senior safety researcher at Anthropic has warned that the probability of artificial intelligence causing human extinction before the end of this decade exceeds 10%.70% similarUnverified2023年AI安全研究者的一项非正式调查显示,受访者对先进AI导致人类灭绝或类似永久性灾难的概率中位数估计在5%-20%之间65% similarUnverifiedNobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton has said that a 10% probability of human extinction is not an unreasonable estimate.57% similarVerifiedIf the probability of the AI making a correct decision is 90%, blindly following the AI's decisions 10 times in a row yields a final accuracy rate of only approximately 35% (0.9 to the power of 10).55% similarUnverifiedAI生成代码的可靠性存在不可预测的波动,可能90%时间好用但10%的离谱输出后果灾难性53% similar
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