Unverified50% confidenceOpinionExact time
Geoffrey Irving, a former researcher at OpenAI and Google DeepMind, stated that the probability of human extinction is roughly equivalent to a coin flip (approximately 50%).
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
9/29/2026
First Seen
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
UnverifiedSome researchers believe the probability of human-level risk within this century is as high as 10% to 50%.70% similarVerifiedA senior safety researcher at Anthropic has warned that the probability of artificial intelligence causing human extinction before the end of this decade exceeds 10%.67% similarUnverified2023年AI安全研究者的一项非正式调查显示，受访者对先进AI导致人类灭绝或类似永久性灾难的概率中位数估计在5%-20%之间65% similarUnverifiedNobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton has said that a 10% probability of human extinction is not an unreasonable estimate.63% similarUnverified一个随机猜测的模型在单次二元预测中有50%的概率押中61% similar
Cite This Claim
Stable URI
https://kongchang.com/claim/959942API
curl https://kongchang.com/api/v1/knowledge/claims/959942MCP
get_claim(id=959942)