Unverified50% confidencePredictionExact time
A paper co-signed by OpenAI's chief scientist, Anthropic's co-founders, and others estimates that when AI R&D is fully automated and compute becomes the bottleneck, progress equivalent to one year could be achieved in approximately five weeks.
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10/4/2026
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UnverifiedThe author predicts that if a five-month cycle is maintained, a domestically developed AI capable of cheap, full-platform, full-tool operation may appear before this year's Lunar New Year.77% similarUnverifiedIn the short span of one month in late July 2026, OpenAI researchers' AI usage surged nearly fourfold.75% similarUnverified当前主流AI实验室包括OpenAI、Anthropic、Google DeepMind对AGI的时间线预测从数年到数十年不等73% similarUnverifiedOpenAI目标在2026年9月前推出实习级AI研究助手，2028年3月前实现完全自动化的合格AI研究员73% similarUnverifiedIn its 2024 Responsible Scaling Policy, Anthropic committed that if, with the help of AI, work that would take two years at the 2018–2024 pace can be completed within one year, that would constitute reaching AI R&D level 5 threshold73% similar
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