Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
In the classic experiment of tapping the rhythm of a song, tappers estimated a 50% probability that listeners would guess the song title, while the actual rate was only 2.5%.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
10/4/2026
First Seen
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
Unverified一个随机猜测的模型在单次二元预测中有50%的概率押中74% similarUnverifiedPapers that were randomly boosted with initial selections saw their probability of subsequent selection increase by 45.55 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 41.20 to 49.90).68% similarUnverifiedItaSoRL实验中智能体的内部状态探测准确率仅约50%,等同于随机猜测水平66% similarUnverified研究表明人类评估者在判断LLM输出的事实准确性时,正确率往往只有50%-70%65% similarUnverified假设每步成功率为95%,在一个50步会话中整体成功率约为0.95^50≈8%65% similar
Cite This Claim
Stable URI
https://kongchang.com/claim/972700API
curl https://kongchang.com/api/v1/knowledge/claims/972700MCP
get_claim(id=972700)