Unverified50% confidenceDecision RuleExact time
Evaluating AI earnings forecasts should involve comparison with consensus (the median of all analysts' forecasts) rather than with individual analysts, which is more persuasive
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
10/8/2026
First Seen
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
UnverifiedThe expected value of a proper scoring rule is maximized only when the probability stated by the model is consistent with the true likelihood.69% similarUnverified讲者认为评估AI编程代理应关注80%、90%、99%成功率下的数据而非常被引用的50%成功率版本，因为99%才意味着可信赖并委托给模型68% similarUnverifiedIn AI systems, confidence is typically expressed as a probability value between 0 and 1, reflecting the model's estimate of the correctness of its own output.67% similarUnverifiedThe 80% rule means that when an AI's confidence in a judgment reaches or exceeds 80%, the system directly executes the result (writing it back to the data); when it falls below this threshold, the case is handed over for human review.67% similarUnverified综合多个独立来源的评测结果比单一自报基准分数更能反映模型的实际水平67% similar
Cite This Claim
Stable URI
https://kongchang.com/claim/989000API
curl https://kongchang.com/api/v1/knowledge/claims/989000MCP
get_claim(id=989000)