Brier Skill Score
A metric measuring the improvement of a probabilistic forecast relative to a reference forecast, computed as 1 - BS_model/BS_ref, where a value greater than zero indicates performance better than the reference.
Timeline (last 90 days)
Models including lagged rainfall features achieved a Brier skill score of 0.074 (95% CI 0.064-0.088) relative to climatology for next-day prediction.
When station and year inputs were removed, the model's Brier skill score relative to climatology rose to 0.091; when same-day observations from other stations were added, it rose to 0.131.
The Brier skill score is calculated as 1 - BS_model/BS_ref, where a value greater than 0 indicates the model is better than the reference, equal to 0 indicates no improvement, and less than 0 indicates worse than the reference.
Reporting skill scores relative to climatology (such as the Brier skill score) has become standard practice in weather forecast evaluation.
All Facts (4)
Models including lagged rainfall features achieved a Brier skill score of 0.074 (95% CI 0.064-0.088) relative to climatology for next-day prediction.
50%UnverifiedWhen station and year inputs were removed, the model's Brier skill score relative to climatology rose to 0.091; when same-day observations from other stations were added, it rose to 0.131.
50%UnverifiedThe Brier skill score is calculated as 1 - BS_model/BS_ref, where a value greater than 0 indicates the model is better than the reference, equal to 0 indicates no improvement, and less than 0 indicates worse than the reference.
50%UnverifiedReporting skill scores relative to climatology (such as the Brier skill score) has become standard practice in weather forecast evaluation.
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