Calibration
A family of metrics that measure the consistency between a model's output probabilities and its actual accuracy rates. Commonly quantified with the Brier score, a well-calibrated model produces confidence scores that align with its true accuracy on corresponding predictions.
Timeline (last 90 days)
The model showed the highest confidence (95%) on underdetermined problems (problems with no unique correct answer), exhibiting a reverse calibration phenomenon.
Calibration measures whether the confidence reported by the model matches actual accuracy; an unvalidated confidence interface may mislead downstream decisions and should not be shipped.
Calibration refers to the consistency between the probability estimates a model produces and the actual frequency of occurrence, and is commonly quantified using the Brier Score and calibration curves.
Each question in a prediction market settles only once, and a single outcome cannot distinguish between accurate prediction and good luck; statistically meaningful calibration comparisons require accumulating data across hundreds of settled questions.
All Facts (4)
The model showed the highest confidence (95%) on underdetermined problems (problems with no unique correct answer), exhibiting a reverse calibration phenomenon.
50%UnverifiedCalibration measures whether the confidence reported by the model matches actual accuracy; an unvalidated confidence interface may mislead downstream decisions and should not be shipped.
50%UnverifiedCalibration refers to the consistency between the probability estimates a model produces and the actual frequency of occurrence, and is commonly quantified using the Brier Score and calibration curves.
50%UnverifiedEach question in a prediction market settles only once, and a single outcome cannot distinguish between accurate prediction and good luck; statistically meaningful calibration comparisons require accumulating data across hundreds of settled questions.
50%