ConceptConjunction Fallacy / 琳达问题
Conjunction Fallacy
A classical cognitive bias identified by Tversky and Kahneman in cognitive psychology, in which people erroneously judge the probability of two conditions holding simultaneously to be higher than the probability of either condition alone, violating the probability axiom P(A∧B) ≤ P(A).
Timeline (last 90 days)
Nov 3
A preregistered study compared direct numerical answers with a multi-estimate response format on five task types: anchoring, hindsight, base rates, conjunction, and status quo/default.
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