False Consensus
A social psychology concept referring to the tendency of people to overestimate the degree to which others share their views. In policy contexts, it can lead to the mistaken belief that a particular figure represents a broad scientific consensus.
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Cross-verification requires independence among sources, avoiding the "false consensus" caused by reprints from the same origin.
The most direct risk of introducing unreliable probability estimates into policy discussions is false consensus: when a number is repeatedly cited within policy circles, it is taken by default as 'scientific consensus,' when in fact it may only be the subjective judgment of a few researchers.
All Facts (2)
Cross-verification requires independence among sources, avoiding the "false consensus" caused by reprints from the same origin.
50%UnverifiedThe most direct risk of introducing unreliable probability estimates into policy discussions is false consensus: when a number is repeatedly cited within policy circles, it is taken by default as 'scientific consensus,' when in fact it may only be the subjective judgment of a few researchers.
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