ConceptS曲线 / 技术S曲线
Technology S-Curve
A theoretical model describing the maturation of a technology: early slow improvement, a period of rapid growth, and finally a plateau as the technology approaches its limits. It is used to reason about when performance gains from an established approach begin to diminish and when a new approach may supersede it.
Timeline (last 90 days)
Oct 18
The author once used the technology S-curve to judge that AI had passed the peak of hype, but the actual observation is that leaps in model capability are still continuing, and the S-curve framework tends to underestimate the nonlinear progress brought by paradigm shifts.
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