Unverified50% confidenceBenchmarkExact time
None of the 9 models could clearly outperform the "fixed guess of 31%" baseline, with all models' AUC confidence intervals containing 0.5.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Medium-term (~90 days)
Relevance
10/12/2026
First Seen
Valid until: 1/10/2027
Sources
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Related Claims
UnverifiedWhen all three models are transferred to the LIAR benchmark, they all drop to near-random ranking levels (ROC-AUC of only 0.54–0.57), with none able to beat the majority-class baseline.73% similarVerifiedAUC值域为0.5到1.0，0.5代表随机猜测、1.0代表完美预测，不受样本类别不平衡影响72% similarUnverifiedOf the 12 hosted models measured, 7 maintained a false-confidence rate of 0.00 or 0.10 across every format.71% similarVerifiedAn AUC=1 on the ROC curve indicates a perfect classifier, while AUC=0.5 is equivalent to random guessing.69% similarUnverifiedRanked by question difficulty, persistence rate was 91.4% on the 60 questions that all models answered correctly, but only 73.5% on the 52 questions that at least one model got wrong, indicating that sycophancy tracks uncertainty.68% similar
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