Unverified50% confidenceOpinionExact time
Cryptographer Matthew Green believes there is a 1% probability that we live in a Minicrypt world, that is, a world in which public key encryption is mathematically impossible.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
10/12/2026
First Seen
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
UnverifiedMatthew Green believes there is a 15% probability that we will substantially lose confidence in existing public key encryption algorithms.76% similarUnverifiedIn Minicrypt, primitives based on one-way functions such as symmetric encryption, pseudorandom number generators, and message authentication codes can still be constructed, but primitives based on trapdoor functions such as public key encryption, key exchange, and digital signatures are mathematically impossible to realize.71% similarUnverifiedMatt Green推断OpenAI与Anthropic极可能都使用单一全局密钥加密所有客户端推理数据，属于密钥管理反模式68% similarUnverifiedWWI handcrafted ciphers have an extremely limited keyspace and ciphertext carries statistical regularities such as letter frequency distribution, making them weak encryption at the information-theoretic level.68% similarUnverifiedThe security of modern cryptographic systems is built on the assumption that certain mathematical problems are 'computationally infeasible,' such as large integer factorization and discrete logarithm solving.67% similar
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