Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
For the jump in time horizon from 3 minutes to 30 minutes (a factor of 10), the corresponding increase in AI difficulty is far smaller than that for the jump from 30 minutes to 5 hours (also a factor of 10).
1
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50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
10/13/2026
First Seen
Sources
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Related Claims
Unverified强大的AI代理执行复杂任务往往需要约十分钟而非几秒79% similarUnverifiedIn the 2-to-30-minute interval, increases in human completion time barely change a task's AI difficulty, and tasks in this interval are similar in difficulty for AI.78% similarUnverifiedBrown observed that each time AI crosses a mathematical benchmark threshold, the human time required for the tasks it can handle increases by approximately 10x (GSM8K ~5 seconds, MATH ~1 minute, olympiad qualification level ~10 minutes).76% similarUnverifiedThe maximum time AI can continuously make progress on a single task has grown from a few seconds to approximately one hour over the past one to two years.74% similarUnverifiedThe AI safety field refers to the scenario in which capabilities increase by an order of magnitude within days or weeks as the 'fast takeoff' hypothesis, in contrast to 'slow takeoff,' where capabilities improve gradually and can be observed and intervened upon.72% similar
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