Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
At τ=0.6 the confidence distribution is concentrated around a median of 0.6294, and 851 of the 2000 decisions (42.6%) fall below 0.6, which by case count is 90.8%.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Medium-term (~90 days)
Relevance
10/13/2026
First Seen
Valid until: 1/11/2027
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
UnverifiedWith a sample size of 112 questions, the 95% confidence interval near 0.95 is approximately ±4 points, making it impossible to distinguish between scores of 0.94 and 0.92.76% similarVerifiedCalibrated confidence means that when the system gives a score of 0.9, the probability of being correct should be close to 90%.75% similarUnverifiedUnder the condition of n=100 with an even split of positive and negative samples, the 95% confidence interval for 55% accuracy is roughly 45%–65%, which covers the 50% baseline, so the 5 percentage point gap may be random fluctuation.75% similarUnverifiedThe standard margin of error for Gallup polls is typically kept within ±3–4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.74% similarUnverified99.3%通过率（283/285）对应的95%置信区间约为97.5%-99.9%（使用Wilson区间估计）72% similar
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