Unverified50% confidenceOpinionExact time
An honest 0.8 probability is more useful than an inflated 0.99.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
10/27/2026
First Seen
Sources
Jev AI's Calibrated Probability: An Output of 0.8 Means 80% Accuracy
youtubeJames Briggs10/27/2026
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Related Claims
UnverifiedIn a four-choice scenario, even if the top-1 probability reaches 0.64, the normalized confidence may be only 0.26, which is why the plugin, comparing confidence against the 0.8 threshold, can never pass.72% similarUnverifiedIn the synthetic experiment, "always output RISK_LEVEL: 1" achieves an ordinary accuracy as high as 0.922, but an average reward of −0.000, showing that class-balanced rewards can prevent laziness.70% similarVerifiedCalibrated confidence means that when the system gives a score of 0.9, the probability of being correct should be close to 90%.68% similarUnverifiedThe study found that the faithfulness score for counterfactual inputs was only 0.05 points lower than for factual inputs (on a 1–5 scale), a difference that is almost negligible.68% similarUnverifiedCohen's κ typically ranges from -1 to 1: 0 means no better than random guessing, 0.61–0.80 is generally regarded as substantial agreement, and above 0.81 as almost perfect agreement.67% similar
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