Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
The consistency among manual analyses from different meteorological agencies ranges from CSI 0.277 to 0.501.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
11/2/2026
First Seen
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Related Claims
UnverifiedThe critical success index (CSI) is calculated as hits divided by (hits + false alarms + misses), with a range from 0 to 1.69% similarUnverifiedModels including lagged rainfall features achieved a Brier skill score of 0.074 (95% CI 0.064-0.088) relative to climatology for next-day prediction.65% similarUnverifiedWhen random forests were used on the main data-generating mechanism, the coverage of estimators using in-sample fitted propensity scores dropped to 0.12–0.48, severely under-covering; whereas after cross-fitting both nuisances, coverage recovered to 0.91–1.00.61% similarUnverifiedA simple station-month climatology baseline achieved 88.4% accuracy and an AUC of 0.950 in classifying high-rainfall months.61% similarUnverifiedIC通常用Pearson相关系数计算，取值范围-1到1，日均IC稳定达到0.03-0.05即被认为具有统计意义，顶级因子也很少超过0.160% similar
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