Verified85% confidenceFactExact time
A perfectly calibrated model achieves an accuracy of exactly 70% across all predictions for which it claims 70% confidence.
5
Sources
85%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
7/8/2026
First Seen
Sources
元认知反馈：用强化学习让大模型准确表达不确定性
hackernewshackernews7/7/2026
Related Claims
UnverifiedWhen a well-calibrated person says 'I am 70% confident,' the actual success rate of such judgments should be close to 70%.78% similarUnverifiedIn a well-calibrated model, an output score of 0.8 should statistically correspond to an actual accuracy of 80%.77% similarUnverifiedOn reasoning-based question-answering tasks, the strongest closed-source models achieved accuracy exceeding 90%.73% similarUnverified研究表明人类评估者在判断LLM输出的事实准确性时，正确率往往只有50%-70%69% similarUnverified研究表明经过良好校准的LLM裁判与人工标注的一致性可达80%以上69% similar
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