Unverified50% confidenceCautionExact time
泊松分布假设进球相互独立，但现实中球队进球后会改变战术节奏导致此后进球概率变化，这是该模型的局限
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
7/13/2026
First Seen
Sources
Simulating the 2026 World Cup 50,000 Times: Monte Carlo Simulation and Data Science in Action
redditr/learnmachinelearning7/9/2026
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