Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
Approximately two-thirds of failed trajectories are 'near-misses.'
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Medium-term (~90 days)
Relevance
9/5/2026
First Seen
Valid until: 12/4/2026
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
VerifiedIn long-chain tasks, if each step has an error rate of approximately 5%, the overall success rate may drop to below 36% after 20 steps.72% similarUnverifiedAggregate metrics (such as average scores) mask failures in long-tail scenarios; when 95% of routine cases perform excellently, the collapse of the remaining 5% of edge cases leaves no obvious mark on the overall score.67% similarUnverifiedTreating every failure as an equally weighted deduction is a serious evaluation pitfall, as an average score of 95% can mask the most costly and irreversible failures within that 5%.67% similarVerifiedReAct's errors amplify in a chain: if the accuracy per step is p, the overall success rate after n steps is approximately p to the power of n; with a per-step accuracy of 95%, the overall success rate drops to approximately 59.9% after 10 steps and only 35.8% after 20 steps.67% similarUnverifiedFor a long-running task with a single-run success rate of only 85%, there will be 4–5 failures per month; raising it to 99% results in fewer than 1 expected failure per month, which approaches enterprise-level availability standards.66% similar
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