Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
A Harvard University study shows that when more than 70% of a country's citizens believe the government is corrupt, populist candidates receive on average 12 percentage points more votes.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Medium-term (~90 days)
Relevance
9/9/2026
First Seen
Valid until: 12/8/2026
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
UnverifiedRepresentative applications of poll aggregation include FiveThirtyEight (founded by statistician Nate Silver), RealClearPolitics' polling averages, and The Economist's election model.57% similarUnverifiedIn the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the national-level polling average error was approximately 2 percentage points; Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote, and the problems were mainly found in state-level polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which underestimated the turnout of white voters without a college degree.57% similarUnverifiedThe standard sample size for most national polls is between 1,000 and 1,500 people, with the margin of error typically kept within ±3 percentage points.56% similarUnverified盖洛普数据显示,表示愿意投票给合格女性总统候选人的美国人比例已从1937年的33%上升至当前的94%54% similarUnverifiedCondorcet's Jury Theorem (1785) proves that when each voter's accuracy exceeds 50%, as the number of voters increases, the accuracy of majority voting approaches 100%.53% similar
Cite This Claim
Stable URI
https://kongchang.com/claim/884637API
curl https://kongchang.com/api/v1/knowledge/claims/884637MCP
get_claim(id=884637)