Unverified50% confidenceEventExact time
George Gallup successfully predicted Roosevelt's re-election in the 1936 U.S. presidential election, defeating the Literary Digest poll with its sample size of 2.4 million, proving that sample quality matters far more than sample quantity.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
9/9/2026
First Seen
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
Unverified盖洛普数据显示，表示愿意投票给合格女性总统候选人的美国人比例已从1937年的33%上升至当前的94%56% similarUnverifiedIn the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the national-level polling average error was approximately 2 percentage points; Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote, and the problems were mainly found in state-level polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which underestimated the turnout of white voters without a college degree.56% similarUnverifiedIn the 2020 election, polls correctly predicted the presidential winner, but the average polling error expanded to approximately 4 percentage points.54% similar
Cite This Claim
Stable URI
https://kongchang.com/claim/884738API
curl https://kongchang.com/api/v1/knowledge/claims/884738MCP
get_claim(id=884738)