Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
If a model has a 5% failure rate per 10-minute window, the success rate after four hours drops to only about 30%; reducing the per-10-minute failure rate from 5% to 3% brings the four-hour failure rate down from about 70% to about 50%
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
9/18/2026
First Seen
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
UnverifiedFor a long-running task with a single-run success rate of only 85%, there will be 4–5 failures per month; raising it to 99% results in fewer than 1 expected failure per month, which approaches enterprise-level availability standards.75% similarVerifiedIn long-chain tasks, if each step has an error rate of approximately 5%, the overall success rate may drop to below 36% after 20 steps.75% similarUnverifiedMETR evaluation shows that when SO's cheating attempts are counted as failures, the task duration for a 50% success rate is 11.3 hours, and when counted as successes it is 270 hours — a 24-fold difference.70% similarUnverified如果编辑工具的成功率只有90%，在需要连续执行10次编辑的任务中，整体成功率将下降到不足35%70% similarUnverified即便每个服务单独达到99.9%的SLA，四节点串联后整体可用性跌至99.6%，每月额外增加约26分钟潜在故障窗口69% similar
Cite This Claim
Stable URI
https://kongchang.com/claim/931509API
curl https://kongchang.com/api/v1/knowledge/claims/931509MCP
get_claim(id=931509)