Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
在分布外（out-of-distribution）输入上，高置信度的错误判断相当常见
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
9/19/2026
First Seen
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
Unverified置信度评分系统的错误分散在整个分数区间，表现为校准误差，覆盖率高但隐蔽性强79% similarUnverified统计学上，只有当误差相互独立时多数投票才能有效降低错误率；当误差高度相关时，共识反而会强化错误73% similarUnverified识别准确率与误报率是核心权衡：灵敏度调太高能捕捉细微哭声但误报增多，调太低漏报风险大，实际使用应从中高档起步逐步微调72% similarUnverified与接收方倾向一致的错误比同等错误率的随机错误更严重地拉低模型性能71% similarUnverified预期违背理论认为当信息源反复设定高预期但交付低验证时，受众会逐步下调对该信息源所有后续声明的可信度评估70% similar
Cite This Claim
Stable URI
https://kongchang.com/claim/934843API
curl https://kongchang.com/api/v1/knowledge/claims/934843MCP
get_claim(id=934843)