Unverified50% confidenceOpinionExact time
AI researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky has publicly stated that his personal P(doom) estimate exceeds 90%.
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50%
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9/29/2026
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UnverifiedCalibrated confidence means that when the system gives a score of 0.9, the probability of being correct should be close to 90%.61% similarUnverified顶级 AI 会议论文中使用 PyTorch 的比例已超过70%，PyTorch 在学术研究领域的使用率已大幅超过 TensorFlow60% similarVerifiedIf the probability of the AI making a correct decision is 90%, blindly following the AI's decisions 10 times in a row yields a final accuracy rate of only approximately 35% (0.9 to the power of 10).59% similarUnverifiedOn reasoning-based question-answering tasks, the strongest closed-source models achieved accuracy exceeding 90%.58% similarUnverifiedThe pLDDT score ranges from 0 to 100; scores above 90 are generally considered high-confidence predictions, 70–90 are considered good predictions, and scores below 50 should be interpreted with caution.57% similar
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