Unverified50% confidenceFactExact time
The overall success rate of an n-step trajectory is the nth power of the per-step success rate p (p^n), which is the exponential decay of compound probability.
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50%
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Long-term
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10/7/2026
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VerifiedReAct's errors amplify in a chain: if the accuracy per step is p, the overall success rate after n steps is approximately p to the power of n; with a per-step accuracy of 95%, the overall success rate drops to approximately 59.9% after 10 steps and only 35.8% after 20 steps.76% similarUnverifiedIn the Best-of-N strategy, if the probability of success in a single sample is p, then the probability of at least one success in N independent samples is 1-(1-p)^N, which approaches 1 as N increases.74% similarUnverifiedLLM每次调用可建模为伯努利试验，N次调用通过次数服从二项分布B(N, p)，通过率95%置信区间约为p̂ ± 1.96×√(p̂(1-p̂)/N)67% similarUnverifiedUSL中相干性开销与并发进程数N的平方成正比，而有效工作量仅与N成正比，超过临界值后导致负扩展66% similarUnverified并行调用N个独立服务时至少一个超标的概率为1-(0.99)^N，N=50时约39.5%，N=100时约63.4%65% similar
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