Ensemble Simulation
A core method for probabilistic assessment of extreme weather, in which small perturbations are applied to initial conditions or different model versions are used to generate dozens to hundreds of forecast trajectories, yielding a probability distribution for the occurrence of extreme events. Ensemble simulation with traditional high-resolution physical models is extremely costly.
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Ensemble simulation generates dozens to hundreds of forecast paths by applying slight perturbations to the initial conditions or adopting different model versions, thereby statistically deriving the probability distribution of extreme events.
If a single simulation of a traditional high-resolution physical model requires thousands of GPU hours, then a 50-member ensemble simulation requires hundreds of thousands of GPU hours, far exceeding the budget of most teams.
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Ensemble simulation generates dozens to hundreds of forecast paths by applying slight perturbations to the initial conditions or adopting different model versions, thereby statistically deriving the probability distribution of extreme events.
50%UnverifiedIf a single simulation of a traditional high-resolution physical model requires thousands of GPU hours, then a 50-member ensemble simulation requires hundreds of thousands of GPU hours, far exceeding the budget of most teams.
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