Finn Brunton
Professor at the University of California, Davis, and a researcher in the cultural study of technology, focusing on the cultural history of cryptography, money and information technology. He has written commentary on prediction markets and crypto-anarchism.
Timeline (last 90 days)
In an article in Harper's magazine and an interview on The Gray Area podcast, Finn Brunton pointed out that current prediction markets are more like 'gambling establishments in beautified form', and their development trajectory is closer to Timothy May's 'trust-destroying machine' than to Robin Hanson's 'collective intelligence dashboard'.
Finn Brunton proposed banning anonymous betting as a compromise, arguing that real-name verification would allow the market to judge the credibility of bettors' predictions and expose the model flaws of those who always predict wrongly.
Finn Brunton said that if he were to bet on the prediction market utopian vision, his answer would be "right now I'm betting this won't happen," because the current American industry has entered an era where "harvesting suckers is an acceptable business model."
All Facts (3)
In an article in Harper's magazine and an interview on The Gray Area podcast, Finn Brunton pointed out that current prediction markets are more like 'gambling establishments in beautified form', and their development trajectory is closer to Timothy May's 'trust-destroying machine' than to Robin Hanson's 'collective intelligence dashboard'.
50%UnverifiedFinn Brunton proposed banning anonymous betting as a compromise, arguing that real-name verification would allow the market to judge the credibility of bettors' predictions and expose the model flaws of those who always predict wrongly.
50%UnverifiedFinn Brunton said that if he were to bet on the prediction market utopian vision, his answer would be "right now I'm betting this won't happen," because the current American industry has entered an era where "harvesting suckers is an acceptable business model."
50%