Robin Hanson
An American economist and associate professor of economics at George Mason University, and one of the founders of prediction market theory. He proposed the concept of futarchy, in which prediction markets guide policy making, as well as thought experiments such as the Great Filter hypothesis.
Timeline (last 90 days)
Robin Hanson began systematically promoting prediction market theory in the 1990s, with the core idea of letting people with professional insight bet on future events and obtaining reliable probabilistic forecasts through putting in real money.
Robin Hanson once helped Xanadu establish an internal prediction market where employees could bet on technology trends and social trends, and the company used the odds to guide decisions.
The futarchy concept proposed by Robin Hanson advocates that governments should evaluate the expected effects of different policies through prediction markets rather than relying on traditional debates or expert committees, but the theory has not been implemented in any country.
Robin Hanson believes that insider trading is beneficial to prediction markets, because participation by people with inside information makes market prices more accurate.
All Facts (4)
Robin Hanson began systematically promoting prediction market theory in the 1990s, with the core idea of letting people with professional insight bet on future events and obtaining reliable probabilistic forecasts through putting in real money.
50%UnverifiedRobin Hanson once helped Xanadu establish an internal prediction market where employees could bet on technology trends and social trends, and the company used the odds to guide decisions.
50%UnverifiedThe futarchy concept proposed by Robin Hanson advocates that governments should evaluate the expected effects of different policies through prediction markets rather than relying on traditional debates or expert committees, but the theory has not been implemented in any country.
50%UnverifiedRobin Hanson believes that insider trading is beneficial to prediction markets, because participation by people with inside information makes market prices more accurate.
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