Unverified50% confidenceOpinionExact time
Longwell judges that if more people had voted in 2024, Trump would have won more votes, because the pattern of high turnout favoring Democrats has reversed, as white working-class voters have shifted toward Republicans over social issues.
1
Sources
50%
Confidence
Long-term
Relevance
10/2/2026
First Seen
Sources
Related Entities
Related Claims
UnverifiedIn the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the national-level polling average error was approximately 2 percentage points; Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote, and the problems were mainly found in state-level polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which underestimated the turnout of white voters without a college degree.59% similarUnverifiedIn the 2020 election, polls correctly predicted the presidential winner, but the average polling error expanded to approximately 4 percentage points.57% similarUnverifiedGeorge Gallup successfully predicted Roosevelt's re-election in the 1936 U.S. presidential election, defeating the Literary Digest poll with its sample size of 2.4 million, proving that sample quality matters far more than sample quantity.56% similarUnverified盖洛普数据显示，表示愿意投票给合格女性总统候选人的美国人比例已从1937年的33%上升至当前的94%53% similarUnverifiedOn the eve of the 2016 U.S. election, prediction markets such as Betfair gave Hillary Clinton a winning probability as high as 83%, and the prediction failed.52% similar
Cite This Claim
Stable URI
https://kongchang.com/claim/966540API
curl https://kongchang.com/api/v1/knowledge/claims/966540MCP
get_claim(id=966540)